I think there are 48 films nominated for at least one Oscar, and a total of 106 nominations for the full length films. I’ve managed to see 25 of the films (52%) covering 75 nominations (70%). I’ve linked to reviews on my other website where I’ve seen things. I only managed to see a couple of the shorts unfortunately. I wish they were more easily available. Here are my preferences and predictions for the winners across all the categories, even the ones I have absolutely no knowledge of.
Film (see my previous post for detailed reviews)
- Arrival – I wasn’t a fan, but I don’t think I viewed it fairly
- Fences – I haven’t seen it, but from what I hear it’s a bit too theatrical to be the best film, the stage play was already heavily rewarded and I don’t think ‘just’ translating the cast and the words to a different medium is necessarily worthy of award
- La La Land – I thought it didn’t successfully blend gritty modern relationship drama with old school musical fantasy, leaving me disappointed
- Hacksaw Ridge – not seen, but broad opinion doesn’t seem to have been positive
- Hell or High Water – I enjoyed this film a lot, and was impressed at how solidly put together it was, but I don’t think it was ‘outstanding’
- Hidden Figures – wonderfully entertaining, but it takes slightly too light-hearted an approach to be a worthy Oscar winner, it is however likely to be one of my favourite films of the year
- Lion – a good film, but not a great film. I wasn’t a fan of the structure (either much too long an ‘introduction’ or a film of two halves that struggle to stick together) and there wasn’t much subtlety on offer.
- Manchester by the Sea – I thought this was a very powerful film, mostly thanks to the performances but certainly supported by a great script and interesting direction to make this a very strong contender for best film
- Moonlight – I may be one of the only people that didn’t like this film. I respect it a lot, but I was bored.
What’s missing – outstanding films from last year were a little thin on the ground I thought. My top film was Eye in the Sky, but as ‘just’ a thriller it didn’t get a look in, even if it was a superb one. Money Monster was a similarly tightly put together piece. I’m ok with not seeing Jackie there as I thought was a better performance than film (flawed in the decision to only show a short period of time, giving no context for the character’s emotions). I didn’t like Nocturnal Animals either, I thought it confusing and unnecessarily arty (what was that opening?!). I haven’t seen 20th Century Women; I, Daniel Blake; or Loving, but all got a lot of praise and are under-represented in the awards (or not at all for I, Daniel Blake). Deadpool would have been a hilarious addition (it got a golden globe nod), and maybe it deserved it for originality and balls alone.
What should win: I’m really not that blown away by the selection, my pick would probably be Manchester by the Sea.
What will win: La a Land
- Denis Villeneuve (Arrival) – I was frustrated by the disjointed and unbalancing direction of Arrival but in hindsight it makes a lot of sense.
- Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge) – I haven’t heard anything particularly positive about it
- Damien Chazelle (La La Land) – I don’t think any of the things I didn’t like La La Land were due to the director, and it’s no easy achievement directing musicals
- Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea) – I would have actually preferred a less arty and fussy directorial style, the writing and acting didn’t need it and it might have improved the runtime and pacing.
- Barry Jenkins (Moonlight) – I didn’t like the direction, but I can respect it
What should win: I don’t really care
What will win: La La Land
- Isabelle Huppert (Elle) – Not seen
- Ruth Negga (Loving) – Not seen, but I’ve loved her on Preacher and other TV work
- Natalie Portman (Jackie) – a great performance, although I thought it came a little close to impression with the strange voice for my tastes, but I think the writing actually limited the scope of her performance.
- Emma Stone (La La Land) – I thought the character was badly written, but Emma Stone still delivered.
- Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) – can’t help but think that this is more a political nomination than anything else, which isn’t to say that Streep wasn’t good in a delicate balancing act of comedy and tragedy. Actually, the more I think about it the better her performance seems.
Who’s missing – poor Amy Adams, did she split the vote with Nocturnal Animals and Arrival or did she just get pushed out by Trump’s hatred of Streep? I’m not sure either performance would have won the award, but she should be here. Taraji P. Henson in Hidden Figures was also wonderful. Annette Benning seemed to have a lot of buzz for 20th Century Women.
Who should win – Natalie Portman
Who will win – Emma Stone
- Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) – superb.
- Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge) – not seen
- Ryan Gosling (La La Land) – I’ve never enjoyed Gosling’s performances and between him, and his character, I wasn’t a fan here either.
- Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic) – not seen
- Denzel Washington (Fences) – not seen, he’s impressive in the trailers, but then if he’s ‘just’ re-creating the exact same performance that he won a Tony for is that really fair? Getting multiple bites of the pie surely?
Who’s missing – I thought Tom Hanks was a shoe-in for Sully, he’s always incredibly good and a popular nominee, although I’ve no idea if it’s deserved. Colin Farrell for The Lobster? Michael Caine for Youth?
Who should win and will win – Casey Affleck
- Viola Davis (Fences) – as for Washington above. With the added souring that she should almost certainly be in the best actress category, not supporting, she won the Tony for *lead* actress.
- Naomie Harris (Moonlight) – impressive
- Nicole Kidman (Lion) – I was instinctively going to say that she wasn’t in it enough to warrant the nomination, but then I thought about the half dozen or so scenes she does have and the level of emotion and power and started thinking differently. The film in general is a bit heavy handed, but Kidman delivers it in spades.
- Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures) – she was good, but outstanding? I’m afraid not, she just didn’t have the material
- Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea) – I wanted to see more of the character, her story was never really told, only in how it related to the other characters (oh crap, is this film a Bechdel test failure?), which is a shame because given what she did with what little time she had, she would have been incredible.
Who should win – I think it’s Kidman for me, but Williams would have been triumphant if only she had an extra scene or two
Who will win – Viola Davis
- Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) – he was wonderful, but I think actually the three actors playing Chiron were just as good.
- Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) – I really liked this film, and Bridges was great as usual, but I don’t think Bridges’ role was anything outstanding – curmudgeonly and rude isn’t a stretch
- Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)- yes. The range that this young actor showed was incredible, carrying the weight of the humour in the film while never leaving any doubt he was also struggling and suffering.
- Dev Patel (Lion) – supporting? Hmm, I guess he didn’t appear for the first third of the film. It’s a powerful performance, and I love watching him, but it’s something of a “what you see is what you get” role, without the nuance of some of the others.
- Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) – to me this is an odd choice, it was Aaron Taylor-Johnson as the ‘bad guy’ that was by far the more powerful performance, I’ve utterly forgotten Shannon’s character.
Who’s missing – if Meryl gets a nom for Florence Foster Jenkins it’s a shame Hugh Grant doesn’t also, his performance walked an even narrower line between tragedy and humour. Ralph Fiennes was startling (and irritating) in the otherwise mediocre A Bigger Splash.
Who should win – Lucas Hedges
Who will win – Mahershala Ali
- Hell or High Water – An interesting idea and very solidly delivered, the mix of drama and humour is well handled and I was gripped throughout
- La La Land – nope, the writing was what I mostly took issue with La La Land, the characters, the dialogue, and mostly the ending I thought were errors
- The Lobster – I liked both halves of this film, but thought they didn’t work well together. I am glad to see it here though as something a bit unusual
- Manchester by the Sea – the structuring of this was superb and the way the past and present intertwine is delicately done
- 20th Century Women – haven’t seen
What should and will win – Manchester by the Sea
- Arrival – I’ve no idea how much of this came from the original, so it’s a bit hard to know. The story and idea are certainly great and cleverly gradually revealed through a tricky narrative, but that might all have already been there.
- Fences – from what I hear, there wasn’t a great deal of adaptation involved in taking this from stage to screen, with the film feeling much like a play.
- Hidden Figures – I loved this film, so I loved the writing. Taking a non-fiction book and making an entertaining and engaging narrative seems a greater achievement, but then it seems a number of liberties may have been taken
- Lion – I think it’s the true story that’s amazing here, the adaptation was fairly by the numbers and unremarkable. It would probably have benefited from some creativity in interweaving the stories or filling in gaps.
- Moonlight – I think it’s an achievement to write a film that says a lot without saying a lot, it’s about more than the words and the structure and depth of this film is impressive.
Am I supposed to be looking for a good final result or a good adaptation? Surely the bigger achievement is the one that requires the most rewriting, or taking something rubbish and making it good without losing sight of the original?
What should win – Hidden Figures
What will win – Moonlight
Animated Feature Film
- Kubo and the Two Strings – gorgeous, original and lovely
- Moana – great story, completely 3 dimensional characters, beautiful design, powerful emotion and laugh out loud humour – it had everything
- My Life as a Zucchini/Courgette – I’d never even heard of this and couldn’t find it anyone
- The Red Turtle – ditto
- Zootopia/Zootropolis – I enjoyed it a lot while I watched it, but it wasn’t one that I’ve thought back on
What’s missing – nothing for Pixar! I didn’t think Finding Dory was anything like as special as things like Inside Out, but I’m surprised it didn’t appear here. Similarly surprised that neither Jungle Book nor The BFG came in. The literally and figuratively beautiful Ethel and Ernest should both be nominated and winning this category. Another great year for animation.
What should win – Moana edges it slightly for me. Or Kubo. I wouldn’t actually mind
What will win – Zootopia – it’s got a rather powerful message on immigration that I don’t think the “Hollywood Liberal Elite” will ignore. Good for them.
Foreign Language Film
- Land of Mine (Denmark), A Man Called Ove (Sweden), The Salesman (Iran), Tanna (Australia) , Toni Erdmann (Germany)
I’ve not seen any of them, I’m a bit ashamed of that
What will win – Salesman has got the political oomph given the director was effected by the travel ban, but I think Toni Erdmann has been more popular.
Documentary – Feature
- Fire at Sea – I thought this was terrible. Pretentious arty nonsense which, with the exception of one sequence and one interview, failed to really add any understanding to either the crisis as a whole, or the impact on the island.
- I Am Not Your Negro – not seen
- Life, Animated – An fascinating look into one family’s life, thanks to frank interviews and family videos you see their history and how they reached where they are. It’s not really making any sweeping statements or education on what autism means, but as a “case study” it’s wonderful.
- O.J.: Made in America – not seen, not least because with last year’s dramatization there’s already a lot of OJ around. Also it’s incredibly long, at 467 minutes, really this is a mini-series!
- 13th – A fairly traditional documentary looking at race and imprisonment in the US via a lot of academic and expert talking heads and a small amount of archive footage. If going this traditional route, I thought there was a bit more scope for better graphics and usage of data, particularly to strengthen the opposing side of the argument to make it more balanced. I don’t think that would have changed the overall point, but actually made it stronger.
What’s missing – I really enjoyed 8 Days a Week, I like the Beatles, but this actually made me understand what it was like to be a Beatles fan, and also some insight into what it was like to be just a group of lads from Liverpool and suddenly the most popular people in the world. I learnt something about the band and the people. I think this would probably be my pick for winner.
What should win -of the three I’ve seen I thought Life, Animated was the least flawed, but 13th was the more important.
What will win – 13th
- Extremis – available on Netflix, very powerful and incredibly moving, I wish it had been longer
- The White Helmets – available on Netflix and well worth watching. Some of the footage is incredible and the situation and people are amazing (in opposite ways).
- 4.1 Miles, Joe’s Violin, Watani: My Homeland – not seen
The documentary short is an incredibly powerful category, I wish it were easier to see more of them. It’s hard to pick which of the two I’ve seen is better, particularly given that I suspect the other three are just as good.
What will win – Extremis
Live Action Short
- Ennemis intérieurs, La Femme et le TGV, Silent Nights, Sing, Timecode
What will win: Ennemis intérieurs
Animated Short Film
- Blind Vaysha, Borrowed Time, Pear Cider and Cigarettes , Pearl , Piper
What will and should win: Piper is the only one I’ve seen (on the front of Finding Dory and it was absolutely gorgeous, so I’ll vote for it here
- Jackie – I actually throught the score was obtrusive and too heavy
- La La Land – lovely. The songs are catchy, and the themes are well developed and entwined through the film.
- Lion – Blended elements from lots of different styles together, reflecting both Indian and Australian culture and the overlaps between them
- Moonlight – an interesting mix of music was played, was that original music or soundtrack?
- Passengers – I’ve no memory of the score
What should win and what will win – La La Land
Best Original Song
- Audition (The Fools Who Dream) from La La Land – it’s a slow build from speaking to belting it out and I think it possibly builds beyond Emma Stone’s ability, but it’s a good full on musical number.
- Can’t Stop the Feeling! from Trolls – slightly odd pick. It’s a catchy enough pop song, but not sure what makes it Oscar worthy
- City of Stars from La La Land – incredibly catchy little tune and I love the turn in the middle, I wish someone other than Ryan Reynolds was singing it though.
- The Empty Chair from Jim: The James Foley Story – beautiful
- How Far I’ll Go from Moana – a lovely message and a catchy song
What’s missing – I loved the music from Sing Street (review), it came from the characters so much, so it’s a shame that didn’t get a look in
What should win – I really love the Moana song, and it might stand a chance if the La La Land songs split the vote and the love for Lin
What will win – City of Stars I should think, unless the La La Songs split the vote and/or Lin Manuel Miranda’s current success and fame carries him through.
Sound Editing: Arrival, Deepwater Horizon, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, Sully
Sound Mixing: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
I’m hazy on the distinction, but to me it seems that outstanding sound is about taking complex, multi-layered ‘noises’ and blending them into a coherent whole. So something like La La Land doesn’t really seem complicated enough to warrant awards.The sci-fi ones have much more complicated work to be done, blending real sounds, generated ones and balancing them all so the audience can make sense of them. Anything like Hacksaw Ridge or 13 Hours, the sounds are so important for making battle feel real, but not so real the audience can’t see or understand what’s happening.
What will win: Hacksaw Ridge for editing and Arrival for mixing
- Arrival – the design work was interesting but it was hard to get excited about given the over use of grey and dingy lighting.
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – the blend of fantasy and art deco New York was beautifully done and very evocative
- Hail, Caesar! – replicating the design of the period is well done, but it’s working from a known starting point
- La La Land – there’s a subtle and clever blending of modern LA and old school musical.
- Passengers – I’m not sure that any of it is particularly ‘realistic’ but the design is all suitably sci-fi, particularly things like the robot bartender
What should win: Fantastic Beasts
What will win: La La Land
- Arrival – one of my least favourite pieces of cinematography, I thought the lighting and the colourisation were dull and killed the energy of the film.
- La La Land – yup, fine. Nice.
- Lion – The different styles for India and Australia, and the different periods the film covered were all interetingly done, with the cinematography reflecting the culture
- Moonlight – I was not a fan, it made me feel a bit dizzy, but I can recognise that it was very good.
- Silence – haven’t seen, but from the trailer it did look impressively epic
What should win: Lion
What will win: La La Land
Makeup and Hairstyling
- A Man Called Ove, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad
What will win: Star Trek? No criticism to the make up and hairstyling on Suicide Squad, but it cannot be “Oscar winning Suicide Squad”
- Allied – not seen, but the costumes looked fairly standard period stuff from the trailer
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – the fantasy elements of the costuming is very subtly done
- Florence Foster Jenkins – Just like everything else in this film, the costumes walk a very fine line between ridiculous and period, which is very cleverly done
- Jackie – should you really get an award for perfectly recreating costumes and outfits? What was the ‘design’?
- La La Land – there’s some nice costuming here, a main contributor to the old-school musical vibe of the film to counteract some of the modernity.
What should win: Florence Foster Jenkins
What will win: La La Land
- Arrival – I’m not sure how much of the interweaving of the jumping time line was done in the script and how much in the editing, but I would assume the little flashes were editing and they were certainly very cleverly done, keeping you inside the characters head.
- Hacksaw Ridge – not seen
- Hell or High Water – I don’t really remember anything clever or outstanding with the editing, but then that may be the magic of good editing
- La La Land – the musical sequences were well put together, supported the old-school feel of the film
- Moonlight – Does the editor decide how long to make the pauses? If so, I wasn’t a fan
What should win – I’m not really sure what I’m looking for, so I’ll say “I don’t mind”
What will win – La La Land
- Deepwater Horizon – not seen, but the effects in the trailer were impressive
- Doctor Strange – the effects were impressive, but I actually found them overwhelming at times. Some of the smaller stuff was subtly done though (eg the cloak)
- The Jungle Book – it’s interesting that Jungle Book ended up in this category, rather than as an animated film, if everything other than one boy was cgi, even the backgrounds I believe, then isn’t this an animated film and not a visual effect?
- Kubo and the Two Strings – a stunning achievement, but mostly this is old school ‘effects’, ie models and manipulation, so it’s not as diverse as some of these.
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – lots and lots of different types of effects
What should win: I think that Jungle Book and Kubo, although superb, just didn’t have as many different types of effects to show off. So… Star Wars for me.
What will win: Jungle Book