Thirty eight films are nominated for Oscars this year and I’ve seen 21 of them, covering 70% of the nominations. The big ones that I missed are Parasite (6 nominations), Ford v Ferrari (4) and Bombshell (3); and I suspect not seeing Parasite will mean some of my calls below are off. I have to say it’s a bit of a disappointing year both for films and the quality of the nominations. It feels like the industry has taken a step backwards in diversity in film making and the Academy has taken an even bigger step back in what they chose to recognise. There were opportunities missed to celebrate more diverse people and a greater range of films, there were significant achievements that haven’t been celebrated while slots were taken up with unremarkable entries from traditional names that coast their way to nominations on automatic. I’ll call out some of the alternative options as I go through.

Best Picture

Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite

My Pick: See my earlier post for more detailed thoughts, but to make a long story short, my pick would be Marriage Story
Prediction: 1917, and I’m not going to be cross about that.
What’s Missing: Rocketman was my film of the year and it should not only be nominated but I think I probably would have picked it as my choice to win. I also wanted to see more diversity in the nominations in terms of genres, Avengers Endgame should be there, so should Us, potentially Knives Out and even For Sama which will likely win the documentary prize.

Best Director

Martin Scorsese – The Irishman, Todd Phillips – Joker, Sam Mendes – 1917, Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Bong Joon-ho – Parasite

My pick and prediction: I don’t think anyone other than Sam Mendes need bother writing a speech. 1917 wasn’t just the best direction of the year, it was probably the best direction of the century so far. It was an incredible challenge to keep everything in very long takes that splice together to make 2 seemingly unbroken acts, and yet the ambition of the complexity of the shots was never compromised. It was truly ground breaking.
What’s missing: Martin Scorses did absolutely nothing outstanding on The Irishman that I can see so his place on this list so that’s one gap that can be filled. Dexter Fletcher did a superb job with Rocketman creating a film that blends intimate character with spectacle. The Safdie brothers’ delivered almost unbearable tension in Uncut Gems, and Greta Gerwig’s direction of Little Women was beautiful and understated. But why nominate a woman when there’s a 70 year old white guy doing the same thing he’s been doing for decades? Yes, I’m pretty cross about The Irishman.

Best Actor

Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory: the only one I haven’t seen unfortunately

Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: this is the one I’m least certain about. It was a good performance, but I’m not sure the material gave him the depth to really be outstanding

Adam Driver – Marriage Story: a powerful performance of a proper person, balancing good and bad, anger and restraint, drama and reason.

Joaquin Phoenix – Joker: His performance is so intense and claustrophobic, so much buried just below the surface that even thinking about it makes me feel anxious.

Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes: In some ways like Phoenix this is a performance of what is just below the surface and Pryce is just as mesmerizing, but in a more positive way.

My pick and prediction: This is a strong list. I think I would probably go with Joaquin Phoenix. 80% of this film is down to him, supported by some good direction and some unsettling music, he is completely responsible for making the film so compelling and so horrible to watch. I can’t think of many other actors who could have played this role, whereas most of the others I think could have been swapped and still worked.
My prediction: I think Phoenix will win, but I can also see that the Academy might give it to Jonathan Pryce as a bit of a lifetime achievement award.
Who’s missing: Taryn Egerton for Rocketman should have been on this list and for me he’d be Phoenix’s biggest competition as he also gave a performance that had so many layers to it (and he sang!). Also Eddie Murphy was superb in Dolemite is my Name, and Adam Sandler puts in a very different and impressive performance in Uncut Gems. Also George MacKay for 1917 because while I didn’t think it was necessarily the best performance of the year, when you take into account that there was no editing to get each frame perfect, he did that performance every time while also doing choreography and stunts that left me breathless.

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo – Harriet, Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story, Saoirse Ronan – Little Women, Charlize Theron – Bombshell, Renée Zellweger – Judy

My pick: I’ve only seen Marriage Story and Little Women and I’m not sure I could pick between the two actresses.
Prediction: Renée Zellweger will almost certainly win
Who’s missing: Lupita Nyonga for Us, slightly cheating because she had two roles but she was terrifying. Awkwafina was wonderful in The Farewell, Jessie Buckley for Wild Rose.

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood: a really weird character played beautifully by Hanks

Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes: I don’t think this was as good a performance as Jonathan Pryce’s, there was just less going on with the character and you basically got what you saw.

Al Pacino and Joe Pesci – The Irishman: I couldn’t actually tell you who did what role, I just didn’t think there was any depth to the characters, just stereotype gangsters

Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: A solid performance but nothing special imho.

My pick: Tom Hanks, easily
My prediction: Brad Pitt seems to be picking up all the awards for some reason.

Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell: not seen

Laura Dern – Marriage Story: I didn’t actually think there was anything particularly outstanding about her performance here, if anything I found her character a bit extreme, detracting from the honesty of the film.

Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit: the successful parts of this film were entirely down to the performances of Johansson and Waititi, the two voices in Jojo’s ears that were in counterpoint to each other, but had the same tone of quirky truthfulness. Johansson was perfect playing an incredibly rich character who loves her son but doesn’t like him sometimes, wants to open his eyes but has to stay secret. Beautifully done.

Florence Pugh – Little Women: Through Pugh’s beautiful performance and Gerwig’s wonderful writing Amy somehow rises from pages (and previous performances) that often sideline her as the spoilt child and turns her into a powerful woman of her time. Without losing sight of the fact that she is also occasionally a spoilt child.

Margot Robbie – Bombshell: I haven’t seen this film, but Margot Robbie is fairly universally wonderful.

My pick: I would like either Johansson or Pugh, but I think Johansson edges it because much of Pugh’s wonderfulness comes from Gerwig’s interpretation of the character.
Prediction: Laura Dern seems to have it in the bag for reasons that completely escape me.

Best Original Screenplay

Knives Out – Rian Johnson: I’m very happy to see this nomination as I think it would be easy to overlook how hard it is to write such a satisfying murder mystery, pacing out the twists and turns.

Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach: A film where the writing is absolutely everything, delivered by very good actors, but fundamentally everything was on the page.

1917 – Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns: While the film was incredible, the story and dialogue was ‘just’ there in service of the direction I think. If the film hadn’t been shot in such a dramatic style I don’t think it would be nominated here.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino: In many ways this is the least Tarantino film of his and I’m not sure it necessarily did him any favours. The writing is fine, but not outstanding.

Parasite – Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won: Haven’t seen

My Pick and prediction: Marriage Story easily.
What’s missing: I think if the Academy were as open minded as they should be they’d be forced to recognize the writing achievement of Avengers Endgame, blending so many characters, complex story threads, humour and action together. I don’t understand how that is less of an achievement than the writing of a drama with just a handful of characters and a simple story.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Irishman – Steven Zaillian, Jojo Rabbit – Taika Waititi, Joker – Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Little Women, The Two Popes – Anthony McCarten

My pick and prediction Hands down this should be Greta Gerwig. She took a story that had been adapted dozens of times before and found new layers to it without losing any of the original. By the way, she’s partners with Noah Baumbach so wouldn’t that make a lovely pair of bookends for them.

Best Animated Feature Film

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World: I was very sad about how they chose to end the series, but I can’t fault the way that the story was delivered.

I Lost My Body: A french animation (although I watched the dubbed version) about an amputated hand that is trying to find its way back to its body. It shouldn’t work, and yet it really does. The way simple 2d animation is used to make a hand such a powerful character is impressive.

Klaus: This film was easily missed on Netflix but was actually a really entertaining, original and beautiful new addition to any Christmas watch list.

Missing Link: I was underwelmed I’m afraid, just completely lacking in originality.

Toy Story 4: As with How to Train Your Dragon, I was sad about how they ended the film, but thoroughly enjoyed it all the way up to that point.

My pick: Klaus. Original, fun, moving and beautiful in look and content.
My prediction: Toy Story 4
Missing: I’m not devastated by the absence of Frozen 2, but Shaun the Sheep Farmageddon should have been there and potentially even won it.

Best International Feature Film

Corpus Christi (Poland), Honeyland (North Macedonia), Les Misérables (France), Pain and Glory (Spain), Parasite (South Korea)

Prediction: I’m ashamed to say that I haven’t seen any of these, but I think it will be a miracle if anything other than Parasite wins.

Best Documentary Feature

American Factory: Really interesting and well put together. It did everything a documentary should – it informed, it intrigued and it made me care.

The Cave: Not seen

The Edge of Democracy: I knew nothing about Brazilian politics but because the film is told exclusively from one point of view it didn’t work for me as an introduction to the subject as I don’t quite trust what I was shown.

For Sama: Stunning. While it’s as biased as The Edge of Democracy, this documentary isn’t trying to explain the why’s of a situation, it’s trying to show what it’s like to live through it and it does that spectacularly.

Honeyland: Not seen.

My pick and prediction: For Sama. An incredible and important piece of film making
Missing: while it’s not as hard hitting a subject, the Fyre documentary was hugely entertaining and an excellent case study of business psychology.

Best Original Score

Joker – Hildur Guðnadóttir, Little Women – Alexandre Desplat, Marriage Story – Randy Newman, 1917 – Thomas Newman, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – John Williams

My pick and prediction: I have to say, of the 4 films I’ve seen the only one I remember the music in is Joker and that wasn’t because it was a memorable tune, but just because it contributed so much to the oppressive mood of the film. Of course John Williams can also do no wrong and I’m sure his latest Star Wars soundtrack continued to build interestingly on his foundations, so I wouldn’t be sad to see him win (interestingly it would only be his 6th Oscar from FIFTY TWO nominations.)

Best Original Song

“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 – Music and Lyrics by Randy Newman: What a weird song, in the context of the film it’s cute but the lyrics themselves could be interpreted very differently and I’m not sure that the jaunty music quite matches the subject.
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman: compared to the rest of Elton and Taupin’s back catalog that’s in the film, this one didn’t stand out, but that’s pretty tough competition.
“I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough – Music and Lyrics by Diane Warren: meh.
“Into the Unknown” from Frozen 2: I didn’t like it as much as Let it Go, but it was a great belter of a song. I feel very sorry for all the parents who have to listen to kids try to sing it without decades of Broadway experience.
“Stand Up” from Harriet – Music and Lyrics by Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo: A powerful song that really stays with you AND works for the film.
My pick and prediction: Stand Up. This will also make Cynthia Erivo the youngest ever EGOT. Missing though is No Place Like Home for Wild Rose, anyone who saw Jessie Buckley perform it at the BAFTAs will be bemused that it’s not nominated.

Best Sound Editing: Ford v Ferrari, Joker, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Best Sound Mixing: Ad Astra, Ford v Ferrari, Joker, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Meh, who knows. Star Wars for Editing and 1917 for mixing?

Best Production Design

The Irishman: Dreary and unremarkable, looks like absolutely every single gangster film ever made.

Jojo Rabbit: In contrast, Jojo Rabbit did something original, making Nazi Germany full of light and colour

1917: so much detail bringing all the locations to life.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: The period details were beautifully recreated and shot

Parasite: Haven’t seen

My pick and prediction: 1917
Missing: I would have LOVED to see Pokemon Detective Pikachu in here!

Best Cinematography

The Irishman, Joker, The Lighthouse, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Pick and prediction: 1917 by a landslide. Roger Deakins’ work is usually something special and even if 1917 had been shot in a normal way he would still likely have been on this list, but to produce that within the constraints of the single takes was just on another level.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Bombshell, Joker, Judy, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, 1917

Two films that are changing people faces to resemble someone else, two films making people look scary and one film making people look dirty (and possibly injured, I’m not sure if that counts as makeup). I never quite understand how the sci-fi films that are doing such amazing prosthetics and alien looks never make it into this category. I’m not sure how you compare any of them.
My prediction: Joker as the makeup is so obvious and so part of the character as his clown mask changes throughout the film.

Best Costume Design

The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

All of these films are in some way recreating periods, so it doesn’t feel like they’re on the same level of creativity as films like Star Wars, Avengers, even Us. That said, period piece Downton Abbey should have been there instead of The Irishman.
My pick: Jojo Rabbit at least was at least taking the period pieces and building from them. Although I also wouldn’t mind Little Women because they were having to be a little bit more creative in how people from that period with limited funds would work, adapting and re-purposing hand me downs etc.

Best Film Editing

Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Parasite

My pick and prediction: Joker, the editing contributed so much to the horrible sense of dread. The irony of the The Irishman being nominated here is insane, it was over 3 hours long and STILL didn’t find any time for character depth or any female characters.

Best Visual Effects

Avengers: Endgame, The Irishman, The Lion King, 1917, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

My pick: Avengers of Star Wars – I just want to see the mainstream action/scifi genres get SOME love somewhere. These films show the biggest range of effects. Irishman is just a single trick of de-aging actors (which it admittedly did very well) and Lion King is ‘just’ CGI animation.
My prediction: 1917, which wasn’t bad.